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Disruption of biological processes in the Anthropocene: the case of phenological mismatch

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Résumé

Biologists increasingly report anthropogenic disruptions of both organisms and ecosystems, suggesting that these processes are a fundamental, qualitative component of the Anthropocene. Nonetheless, the notion of disruption has not yet been theorized in biology. To progress in that regard, we work on a special case. Relatively minor temperature changes impact plant-pollinator synchrony, disrupting mutualistic interaction networks. Understanding this phenomenon requires a specific rationale since models describing them use both historical and systemic reasoning. Specifically, history justifies that the system is initially in a very narrow part of the possibility space where it is viable, and the disruption randomizes this configuration. Building on this rationale, we develop a formal framework inspired by Boltzmann's entropy. With empirical networks, we show historical trends depending on latitude. Then we propose an initial definition of disruption in ecology. When a specific historical outcome contributes to a system's viability, disruption randomizes this outcome, decreasing viability.
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Dates et versions

hal-03574022 , version 1 (15-02-2022)
hal-03574022 , version 2 (24-02-2022)

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  • HAL Id : hal-03574022 , version 2

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Maël Montévil. Disruption of biological processes in the Anthropocene: the case of phenological mismatch. 2022. ⟨hal-03574022v2⟩
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