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A stage-structured hierarchical Bayes model for the babassu palm tree population dynamics – Estimated from anthropogenic open area data sets

Abstract : The babassu palm tree ( Attalea speciosa Mart. ex Spreng.) is an endemic species of Amazon forests, and has social and economical impact/utility. Deforestation highlights this palm tree in anthropogenic open areas (pastures and cultivated fi elds). Simultaneously, knowledge concerning the sustainable functioning of the species within these manmade environments is sorely lacking: its life cycle is not well known, and its population dynamics remains unstudied. In this study, our objective was to generate a model of the population dynamics of the babassu palm tree, validated by in situ analysis, to understand how babassu, a forest species, adapts to pas- tureland and, under certain conditions, becomes invasive. We propose a random matrix model with aggregated variables based on the biological stages of the species as the input. The probabilities of the between-stage transition matrix were modelled using a Dirichlet-multinomial model with a hierarchy taking geographical organization, i.e. transect level, into account. The integration of prior information was formulated through a Bayesian approach. This Bayesian hierarchical matrix model enabled us to demonstrate a bottleneck in the population dynamics and a high year-dependent mortality rate at an early stage.
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Submitted on : Friday, October 22, 2021 - 3:44:59 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, November 3, 2021 - 6:14:51 AM

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Nikolay Sirakov, Bénédicte Fontez, Thérèse Libourel Rouge, Alessio dos Santos, Danielle Mitja, et al.. A stage-structured hierarchical Bayes model for the babassu palm tree population dynamics – Estimated from anthropogenic open area data sets. Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, 2019, 400, pp.14-26. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.02.016⟩. ⟨hal-02100430⟩

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